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Holy Rollers: The True Story of Card Counting Christians, documents several years of the blackjack team I co-managed.
Upon it’s release, it was one of the top 5 documentaries and independent films on iTunes and resulted in media attention and interviews from CNN, New York Times, and even the Christian Broadcasting Network.
It’s been interesting to see this whole project come to fruition, some has been good and some has been… less good. So I thought I would share a few of my (Colin’s) thoughts.
There are tons of things I’m proud of when I think about this film. In general, I am glad to be a part of this whole experience, and my desire is that the card counting community and general population really enjoy the story. Here are some of the things I love about the movie:
There are a couple things that are either misinterpreted, misrepresented, or not fully explained. It’s important to me that people get an accurate understanding of what we care about and how we operate, so let’s get those couple things out of the way:
If you’re interested in seeing the film, you can buy it on DVD through our website here. It’s also available through Video on Demand, iTunes, and a million other streaming sources.
Until next time, keep generating EV!
-Colin
Don Johnson didn’t use card counting, but that’s not to say he wasn’t an advantage player. He actually used a technique that we used to grow our first team’s bankroll massively in a short period. We explain in this video how Don Johnson beat the casino with a calculated edge that doesn’t involve counting. More importantly, we talk about the value of THINKING like an advantage player, not just learn a card counting system.
A card counting system is a valuable weapon in an advantage player’s bag of tricks. But a true advantage player understands EV and how to capitalize on a positive EV situation.
For a much more thorough breakdown, we have the following breakdown by Dr. Eliot Jacobson! Dr. Jacobson also provides a calculator that you can use to calculate the value of Loss Rebate opportunities.
Don Johnson is arguably one of the most famous names in modern advantage play, with his triumphant slaughter of three Atlantic City casinos in late 2011 into early 2012. I was fortunate to hear Don Johnson speak at the World Game Protection Conference in February, 2013. Though Johnson was short on details, it became apparent that the popular media got it completely wrong. Johnson was not some lucky high roller. He was not a party animal who rode good rules to a big profit. In his talk, Johnson smoothly quoted the house edge on the blackjack game he played (0.263%). What “lucky gambler” knows that information? He stated that he had used Ph.D. mathematicians (plural) to help develop his strategy. He discussed a job history that included running a profitable horse racing syndicate. That was enough for me. He was the real deal.
I thought, “I’m a Ph.D. mathematician; I can do that!” I got to work to figure out how Don Johnson did it. The main advantage that Johnson negotiated was a “loss rebate.” Simply put, if he lost money during a trip, then a percentage of his losses would be returned. This is a common incentive for high-rollers, but it is usually accompanied by a requirement for a minimum amount of play. Typically the high-roller is required to play at least 12 hours to qualify for his rebate. This play requirement allows the casino to earn enough “theoretical win” to compensate for the cost of the rebates when they are given. What gave Johnson the edge was that his loss rebate incentive had no minimum play requirement. Here are the details:
It’s easy to see that this structure can be beaten. If Johnson simply quit for the day after either winning $500,000 or losing $500,000, then on his winning days he would keep the full amount, but on the losing days he would only lose $400,000 (after his 20% rebate). With a $100,000 wager, these quit points (winning or losing 5 units) would likely occur after just a few hands. But blackjack is so close to an even game that playing a few hands is about the same as a coin-flip. It follows that with this trivial strategy Johnson would win, on average, slightly less than $50,000 per day. But could he do better? The key to optimizing Johnson’s winnings was to determine his best “win/loss quit points.” These are the profit-maximizing win/loss dollar values at which Don Johnson would leave for the day and either keep his winnings or collect his rebate. I dusted off my old “Stochastic Processes” book from graduate school and soon proved a sequence of three theorems I call the “Loss Rebate Theorems”. When the “Loss Rebate Theorem” spreadsheet was used to analyze Don Johnson’s 20% loss rebate program, assuming a $100,000 wager, it yielded the following:
In simpler terms, Don Johnson’s optimal strategy was to quit after either winning $2.4M or losing 2.6M. At an average pace of 100 hands per hour, his expected play time was just under 5 hours per day. His average daily win over the long run was about $125,000. To double check these theoretical results, I also ran a large number of Monte Carlo simulations. I considered various win/loss quit points and for each I simulated about a hundred million “Don Johnson’s.” After these simulations completed, I felt confident that the theoretical results given above were accurate.
I wrote an e-mail to Don Johnson, sharing my results. I was delighted when he responded to my e-mail, saying that my results were in agreement with those provided by his mathematicians. In addition to the loss rebate program above, Don Johnson piled on more positive expected value. First, Johnson negotiated $50,000 per day in “show-up” money. That is, by simply walking into the casino to play each day, he was given $50,000 cash. Taken together, the loss rebate program and show-up money yielded an expected cash profit of about $175,000 per day.
In a recent Bloomberg documentary, Johnson admitted to intentionally creating havoc at the tables to induce frequent dealer errors in his favor. At $100,000 per error, even two errors per day was another $200,000 in his favor. In a later personal email, Johnson admitted to me that he did “other things” (that I can’t disclose) as well.
Since completing my work on loss rebate advantage play, I have learned that beating loss rebates is at the top of ongoing advantage play opportunities. There are syndicates that fund temporary “high-rollers” to play against these programs. There are US-based players who use their overseas passports and pretend to be high-rollers coming to America to gamble. There are teams who scout incentive programs worldwide looking for any edge. If it is worth it, they will beat it. Indeed, on this very web page, Colin Jones stated, “He (Don Johnson) actually used a technique that we used to grow our first team’s bankroll massively in a short period.” My initial impression of Don Johnson at the World Game Protection Conference was that he was one of the best. In completing this research, the full scope of what Johnson achieved vastly exceeded my initial impression of him. Don Johnson is truly one of the top advantage players of all time.
I don’t blame people for knowing very little about card counting, or the life of a card counter.
Most people assume that if you say you’re a card counter then what that really means is you’re some sort of super-genius who can turn $100 into a million dollars in a few minutes. But unfortunately, you’re breaking the law to and likely to end up getting pistol-whipped by Lawrence Fishburne in the bowels of the casino
Or something like that.
So to set the record straight, I thought I’d share the top 5 misconceptions I encounter:
1. Card counting doesn’t work. There are 3 groups of people that say this: people who don’t know any better, people who have tried and failed, or people who have done it successfully, but assume it can’t be done anymore. To all 3 groups, sorry, but you’re wrong.
In his book, “The Big Book of Blackjack,” Arnold “The Bishop” Snyder makes the argument that there’s no better time in history than now for card counting (I’ve shared elsewhere the same sentiment is held by Blackjack legend, Tommy Hyland).
Sure the games aren’t as easy to beat as they were decades ago, but there are more casinos than ever. And smart card counters are figuring out new ways to beat the games every year. The cat and mouse game continues. Again, I’m not saying it’s easy, but nothing worth doing ever is! We even made the video at the top of this page to set the record straight.
2. Card counting is illegal. This is the most common, and unfortunate, misconceptions out there. And I’m sure the casinos love that people still think it’s illegal to use your brain. I’ve been told by everyone from pastors to neighbors to police officers… all of whom I’ve had to gently correct (the police officer ended up asking if I would teach him).
I don’t even have the energy to explain it again, and obviously you know this, or else you wouldn’t be on our website. But for a more detailed writeup about it, click here.
4. You need a photographic memory to count cards. I have a terrible memory. Seriously. My 3 year old kicks my butt at the game “Memory” every time.
Fortunately, with card counting, you simply need to drill the blackjack strategy charts into your brain (which just takes practice) and be able to remember the running count for a few seconds, until it changes again.
What you DO need is great focus, which I have. It has more to do with practice and repetition than being able to remember stuff like your room number or parking spot (thank God!).
3. A card counter can turn $100 into $1,000,000 in a few hours. You can blame Rain Man for this one. But as any pro card counter can tell you, your chips don’t simply double every couple hours. It involves large wins and large losses, winning streaks and losing streaks, and ups and downs. In “Burning the Tables in Las Vegas,” Ian Andersen discribes a losing streak so bad, he had a friend verify that he was playing correctly. And unfortunately, any pro card counter who plays long enough, will have one of these streaks. It’s not a get rich quick scheme.
5. You need to buy a James Bond suit if you want to play professionally. I considered wardrobe upgrades when I first started playing with real money, then quickly changed my mind.
Next time you’re in Vegas, walk through some high limits rooms and pay attention to what the people around you are wearing. High rollers seem more inclined to wear sweatsuits or Ed Hardy shirts than Versace. There may be a few people wearing suits, but if you look like me you’ll probably stand out more rather than blending in. And there are probably 50 things you could do to appear less like a card counter that have nothing to do with the clothes you’re wearing.
Hopefully this set a few things straight for you!
If you want to learn what it DOES take to beat blackjack for profits, start our FREE Card Counting Mini-Course…