Author Archive for colin

Can you beat Blackjack in Atlantic City?

Published by colin on October 14, 2008 in beating blackjack, card counting systems and casino info. 0 Comments

I received this message recently from a member of our forum:

“can I use your system in Atlantic city? what is the difference between AC and Vegas? does it have any effect in winning?”

Simply put: Yes. You can use our system in Atlantic City, Vegas, Reno, Tahoe, and anywhere else that you can find a decent blackjack game. Better yet, we HAVE used our system all over the US and even in Canada.

So what’s the main difference between AC and Vegas? Besides one being on the ocean and the other being in a desert, the main difference between the two is the rules to the games you’ll find. In AC, you won’t find any games offering Surrender and rarely offering Re-splitting of Aces. Also, in AC, you can only split a pair up to 3 hands, as opposed to 4 hands. This will lower your overall EV slightly. But AC still offers a very beatable game. Heck, all this talk about AC is making me miss the boardwalk and smell of the AC casinos!

Hope that helps!

Why the different deviation charts in different books?

Published by colin on October 6, 2008 in Deviations, basic strategy, beating blackjack, card counting and card counting systems. 0 Comments

I received a question from a member of our website recently asking why some of the numbers on our deviation chart are different from what they have seen in another book or website.

Deviation charts can vary slightly, depending on

1. the rules, number of decks, penetration, etc that you’re assuming
2. your strategy for calculating the true count
3. the number of hands that you ran your simulation generator for

We ran our deviations based on the games that we most commonly played and how we calculate the true count. We ran a ridiculously long simulation. So I trust it’s accuracy. Also, keep in mind that the net effect of slight deviation differences between one chart and another are most likely fractions of pennies on the dollar. So if one chart says stand a 12 v. 3 at 2, and another says stand a 12 v. 3 at 1, the actual number may be something like 1.5, so there’s not a massive difference between the 2. You shouldn’t see different themes in deviations. For example, if our chart says to split 10’s against a 6 at a true 4 and above while another chart says to split 10’s only at negative counts, then there’s something wrong with the other chart!

Hope that helps clarify!

Hard 12 against 2 and 3

Published by colin on September 17, 2008 in basic strategy, beating blackjack, card counting, card counting systems and practice. 5 Comments

ColinMemorizing the playing deviations is great, but unless you know what they mean, it’s worthless. I recently received this question from a premium member on our site, and thought I’d share it with you guys in case anyone else has had the same question:

“I need to know what the correct play deviation is for two different scenarios. One is a hard 12 against a dealers 2. What does the play become at a true count of 3. And the other is a hard 12 against a dealers 3 at a true count of 2. Thank you.”

Here’s my response:

“With both a 12 v. 2 and 12 v. 3, you are going to follow basic strategy, which would be to HIT, until it reaches the indicated count. At the indicated true count (3 and 2, respectively), you will deviate, which in this case is STAND. The theory behind it, is that when there are that many extra 10’s left, you will not want to risk busting your hand, and the dealer has that many extra 10’s to bust his hand with. Hope that helps.”

Deviations are tricky, because they all have different meanings. So make sure you understand both the Basic Strategy decision for each hand, then what the deviation for that hand means.

How much does Penetration really matter?

Published by colin on September 12, 2008 in beating blackjack, card counting, card counting systems and penetration. 0 Comments

I recently received this question from a member of our website:

“hey can you explain the importance of deck penetration and if there is any change in strategy for different penetration. Thanks, love the site!”

ColinMember, thanks for asking, because penetration is incredibly important. First off, I’m going to assume that we’re all mature enough to avoid the jokes pertaining to the obvious sexual innuendo regarding “penetration”. In the world of blackjack, “penetration”, or “deck penetration”, is regarding to the amount of cards that the dealer cuts off, relative to the cards dealt out. In the first several months of card counting I gave no attention to deck penetration. I paid attention to the rules and the table minimum. That was it. Then, after reading “Burning the Tables in Las Vegas” by Ian Andersen, I realized that I should try to find games with better penetration. But it was still probably the third or fourth most important factor in my mind.

As I’ve gotten more familiar with the math of the game, and as I have spent more time with simulation software, I’ve realized that deck penetration is drastically undervalued. People think that the main ways to make more money at card counting are to bet more and to play games with better rules.  Did you know that you can add much more value by finding a game with 10% better penetration than by betting 10% more on high counts. Let’s say you’re using a 1-10 bet spread. Now, on a typical game, you’d add around 10-15% to your EV by betting 10% more on all positive true counts. On that same game, if you get 10% better penetration, you’re going to add 40-60% to your EV.

Cutting the DeckAnd that’s not where the benefits end with improved Penetration. The fewer cards that they cut off, the more of a sure thing that game becomes. One of the reasons I don’t play games with poor penetration is because it would take so many hours to overcome variance, it’s not worth the risk.  However, as the penetration gets better, the number of hours necessary to reach the “long run” becomes less and less. I typically won’t touch a six deck shoe game with more than 2 decks cut off.

So next time you head out to a casino, pay careful attention to how many cards they cut off the back of the shoe before dealing out the deck. It often varies from dealer to dealer, so stick to those dealers that offer better penetration. It’ll take fewer hours to guarantee a profit, and your $/hr will skyrocket!

The Big Player and playing the part: Story Time!

Published by colin on August 20, 2008 in story time. 0 Comments

ColinLet me tell you about the first time I was the Big Player.

I was pretty excited to be the one throwing down thousands of dollars. So before going in to the casino, I started thinking, ” What’s my story going to be?”

So, before entering the casino, I decided to borrow the story of a friend of mine: guitar player in a rock band. A long time friend had recently gotten his band, The Taking*, signed to a major record label deal, and got a large signing bonus in the process. So, young white kids probably all look the same to Casino Pit Bosses, I assumed I could say that I was guitar player for The Taking, and just got a six-figure signing bonus from the record label. Then, if they looked it up online, they’d see that it was a legitimate band, and it would explain why I was throwing around money like it was no object.

RockstarWe enter the casino, and the Big Player act is working perfectly. I’m actually playing next to professional athletes, betting much more than they are, and everyone loves me! I’m up a ton and things couldn’t be better. After several hours, a Pit Boss says to me, “So, you’re in a band, huh?” Even though I couldn’t remember telling my story to anyone yet, I decide to go with it. I say, “Yeah. I play guitar.” I’m just about to go into my story about how “The Taking” just got signed, blah, blah, blah when the Pit Boss replies, “Rocketeer*, right?” My mouth drops and I start to panic, because Rocketeer actually WAS a band that I played guitar and sang for a couple years before. Not a famous band that makes tons of money, but a poor, obscure, short lived band with no website, a 20 person fanbase, and no Major Record deal. Oh no! My cover’s blown. They’ve even figured out the band I used to play in! This is bad.

I had no option but to go with it. So, mustering up false confidence, I say, “Oh yeah. You’ve heard of us?”

A couple hours later, we decide to call it a night. We meet up in the hotel, and Ben says, “So, did you like that story I told the pit boss about you?” It turns out that Ben was playing at a table, spotting for me, and he said to the pit boss, “I recognize that guy. I think he’s the lead singer of Rocketeer!” Since Ben knew about the band I used to be in, he thought it’d be funny if word got back to me that I was famous from the short lived band. The moral of the story is, if you work out an ingenious story as Big Player, make sure the spotters know your story too, so they don’t contradict yours at the tables. Or if your spotters are as witty and mischievous as Ben, be prepared to think on your toes.

*Note: Band names have been changed to protect the innocent and guilty.

Should you join a Card Counting Team?

Published by colin on August 15, 2008 in 21 movie, Team Play, beating blackjack and cover. 0 Comments

Colin When thinking of creating or joining a Blackjack Team, most people are thinking about Team play…you know, the exciting Spotter and Big Player approach talked about in “Bringing Down the House” and shown in the movie ‘21′. You should join a team because of the exciting team dynamics, right?

Well, not exactly. Team play is not the most important reasons to team up with other people. The primary reason I’ve ever teamed up with others in the past is to be able to play off a joint bankroll.

Team PlayThink of it this way: if you and 2 other people each have $5,000, then each person can go to a casino and bet off a $15,000 bankroll. That’s a HUGE deal! You can generate a lot more EV, have lower risk, and counter-balance your variance by teaming up with others.

However, before you put an ad on Craigslist for people to join up with, consider what you’re getting into. Trust is SO important. I cannot overstate this. Take the time to get to know and build trust with anyone before you team up with them. You need to trust their playing ability AND their integrity. If you have ANY questions about either of those points, it’s not worth it. But if you can find a couple people to combine a bankroll with, you can generate more EV per hour, as well as accrue more hours collectively, thus reaching the long run faster.

BJRM 2002 vs. CVCX v.4

Published by colin on August 15, 2008 in beating blackjack and card counting. 0 Comments

ColinPeople are asking me all the time what the best Blackjack Simulation software is. I’m going to compare my 2 favorite canned-sim programs: Blackjack Risk Manager 2002 (BJRM 2002) and Casino Verite Chapter 10 v.4 (CVCX).

A canned-sim program has massive data from a simulation already run, then you can change the criteria to suit your needs. This saves tons of effort, and is a must for any serious card counter who wants to value the EV (expected Value) and Risk of various games.

So which program is better? I find both programs a must, because they each offer some valuable things that the other doesn’t.

BJRM 2002

BJRM: offers a way to calculate how many hands/hr YOU are able to play (BJ Clock). This shows how diverse different playing conditions can be with hand shuffles, machine shuffles, other players, heads up, and so on. BJRM also has some training drills that are useful when you’re still training. And it offers as a way to create your own sim files with Statistical Blackjack Analyzer, but it’s kind of annoying to use. It’s a great program, but still pretty limited.

CVCX CVCX: doesn’t offer any training drills or BJ Clock. I also find the interface pretty annoying. But they more than make up for it with it’s features. One of the most important feature being the ability to run your own massive simulations within the program. If you are using a different playing strategy, different rules, etc., you can run your own simulation that will give you the data to be used within the program. CVCX also offers a way to have a bet spread that changes from 1 hand to 2. Many players I know will add a second hand only when the count has gone up. There’s now a way to do account for this strategy. CVCX has more interactive risk analysis, easy ways to compare your own results with probability. CVCX also has 1/2 count betting strategy options, if you’re changing your bet spread at 1/2 count intervals, rather than whole true count intervals. Finally, it has a way to freeze your custom bets. So you can enter in a bet spread, and see how different rules, penetration, number of players, decks, hands/hr, etc. all effect the EV and risk of that spread. BJRM is just too simple to have any of these options.

So if I were to use just one, I’d have to go with CVCX. The interface can discourage you, but it just can do so much more than any other program out there. I’m pretty sure I’m going to end up coming up with my own design and having a programmer write it for me, but until then, CVCX is where it’s at.

How much money should you bring to the casino?

Published by colin on August 6, 2008 in Money management and beating blackjack. 0 Comments

ColinI’ve been asked this question a lot of times. Your total bankroll might be $500, $5,000, or $50,000. But does that mean you should bring all that money to the casino for each session? Probably not.However, I’d say one of the worst things that can happen is finding yourself under-funded at the casino. You don’t want to leave early, or even worse: be in the middle of a positive shoe and run out of money! Especially if you flew into a town or had to drive a ways to get to the casino. So I’d lean more towards bringing more than you’ll need than not enough. But then again, I’m willing to take the risk of traveling with extra cash on me.

Money

That being said, here’s my advice: Keep in mind that it kind of depends on how long you plan on playing, as well as the variance of the game you’ll be playing. But a decent rule of thumb would be to bring at least 50 big bets. So if your big bet is $100, then I’d bring $5K. That might sound like overkill, but I’ve had sessions where I’ve been in for that many bets or more. If you don’t feel comfortable carrying that much extra money “just in case”, then you can bring less, but I’d rather have too much on me than not enough.So how about deciding how much money to be betting when you start losing, and the money left in your trip bankroll is getting smaller and smaller as the session goes on? An important rule is to always keep 6 bets to back up any bet you place. So if you bet $100, make sure you have another $600 to back it up. The reason being, you need to be prepared to split and double down multiple times. I know what you’re thinking: “But Colin, I just doubled down on a $100 bet, and I only have $500 left. The running count just jumped up to 30! Surely I should put even a larger bet out to win my money back?” No, padawan. You will have many chances to get your money back. But it is always more important to perfectly follow your playing strategy than to bet more money. So i you find yourself with $500, and you’re betting strategy says to bet $100, you’ll have to actually bet $70, so you have 6 bets to back it up.

CVCX

If you want to calculate how much to bring with you with greater accuracy, I would recommend using the “Trip Bank” feature on CVCX or BJRM2002 to help you calculate how much money to bring. You can enter in the length of session or trip you plan on taking, as well as the game you’ll be playing, and it will tell you the risk of running out of money for various trip bankroll sizes. You’ll have to weigh the risk of possibly running out of money on a trip with the risk your willing to take of carrying X amount of money. One last bit of advice: don’t ever advertise how much money you have on you.Neither the casino nor the other gamblers need to know how much you’re hiding in your pockets or wallet. A safe card counter is a happy card counter!

Why the differences in Basic Strategy?

Published by colin on July 30, 2008 in basic strategy and beating blackjack. 4 Comments

UPDATE: Downloads our charts here

Stand 17 Basic Strategy Chart

Hit 17 Basic Strategy Chart

ColinSo you decide you want to play Blackjack right. You download our basic strategy chart, and you go online and start playing a basic strategy game to test your skills. Before long, the game says you made a mistake, but you followed the chart! What the hell? Do Colin and Ben not know what they’re talking about?

Rest assured, Padawan’s. We would never lead you astray. Basic Strategy represents the default optimal strategy for attempting something. So I could say that my basic strategy for Qdoba Mexican Grill is a Steak Queso burrito with black beans, extra cheese, sour cream, corn salsa, and double red hot sauce. I believe that this is the optimal approach to eating at Qdoba. It gives me the best odds of having a great lunch experience.

But back to Blackjack…The problem with basic strategy for blackjack is that it depends on the rules of the game you’re playing. 99% of the time, the difference in strategy centers around one simple, but very important rule: Does the dealer HIT or STAND when they have a Soft 17? If the dealer stays when they have a soft 17 (S17), you are going to treat a few hands differently than if the dealer will hit until they have a hard 17 or better (H17). There are really only a few hands that are played differently depending on the game: A,8 versus 6; 11 versus A; A,7 versus 2.

Be sure to know what game you are playing, and play the basic strategy accordingly. The good news is that if you plan on learning how to count and use playing deviations, all of these decisions will be dependent on what the count is. But since you should always start by building a SOLID foundation of basic strategy, figure out if you’ll be playing a S17 or H17 game. The way to do this is to look at the blackjack felt, and it will either say, “Dealer must draw to 16 and stand on all 17s” for S17, or “Dealer must Hit Soft 17″ for H17.

STAND 17 TABLE FELT

S17 Table

HIT 17 TABLE FELT

H17 table.png

Also, if you’re practicing on a Basic Strategy game, make sure you know if it’s assuming S17 or H17. Most games assume S17, since that was the original way all Blackjack was played, and is still the way played in MOST of the country. If you have the choice, always pick S17, since it favors the player more than H17. Unfortunately, H17 is creeping in more and more, especially in Vegas. Don’t worry though, H17 games are still completely beatable.

I Hope that helps. Now I gotta run to practice my Qdoba basic strategy.

You Can’t Make Money Counting Cards?

Published by colin on July 7, 2008 in beating blackjack, books and gambling. 6 Comments

Then ask me how I pay my mortgage! We were  sent the above clip from this morning talk show in San Deigo on Youtube where a guy, Oliver Galang, is pushing his book entitled “Card Counting: the real truth in Blackjack.”  

undefinedColin’s Response 

  • Oliver main argument is that the reason you CANNOT win over the long haul in blackjack is because the dealer has the same chance of getting 20 or 21 as you. Good point, Oliver. However, did you forget that the player gets paid 3:2 on blackjacks (21 with the first 2 cards)? So it’s an even trade with the dealer for 20’s and multiple card 21’s, but you’re getting 50% more for every blackjack that you get than the dealer. I’ll trade an even number of $100 blackjacks back and forth between me and the dealer all day, because I know that I get $150 for each blackjack, while the dealer only gets my $10.
  • Oliver’s second argument is that HE lost everything. Well, sorry Oliver that you aren’t capable enough, but don’t claim that it can’t be done just because you are inept. Plenty of people “count cards”, but don’t make a profit, for any of a number of reasons… They either do not follow the strategy perfectly, cannot count perfectly, don’t have a winning bet spread, cannot manage their money properly, tip away any advantage they do have, or play unbeatable games. Whatever the case may be, I guarantee that Oliver had too much gamble in him to be a successful card counter.
  • The main casino he mentions is Barona, in San Diego. I must know 30+ card counters who have played Barona (myself included), and we’ve all been backed off from blackjack sooner or later (usually sooner). Barona even has a Blackjack Hall of Fame! They know a successful card counter when they see one. If Oliver was at all apt, he wouldn’t have lasted long at all at Barona. Yet another reason why his problems are with his own Blackjack game, not Card Counting as a science. Sorry Oliver, but you’re like a gunman with horrible aim claiming that guns can’t kill people.
  • Oliver claims he invented the “double up theory”, where you double your bet after you lose a bet, as to win back your original money and always end up even or on top. This is actually called a “progressive bet spread” or “Martingale bet system”, and it’s as old as gambling. I first heard of a progressive bet spread in college in regards to how to beat roulette. This was long before I ever had gambled or knew how to count cards. I don’t need to explain why it’s faulty logic. If you’re interested you can read it here . But I don’t know what’s more asinine: Oliver claiming he invented it, or that he uses it.
  • My final area of amusement from the interview is that Oliver says that he still gambles. After he “lost it all” gambling, he still is either dumb enough or addicted enough that he’s still out there donating his money to the casinos. If you’re going to write a book about the dangers of gambling and how you lost it all, at least don’t be stupid enough to admit you’re still caught up in gambling.

    • So here’s my conclusion: Oliver is yet another gambler making excuses for their lack of self-control and addictive habits. And he’s using his tragedy as an opportunity to make a buck selling a book about it, cashing in on the brief media hype caused by the movie “21″. He can’t admit that he’s too poor at card counting to make it work; he has to say that card counting itself is flawed. Well, that comes as a surprise to myself and all the other advantage players that are able to consistently make a living (or at least supplement their income) from card counting.Oh well… at least might keep a few ploppies from wasting their money at the blackjack tables.

    — 

    Ben Ben’s Response:

    This guy is a tool. “Streak theory”?!?! Common. Streak theory was disproved back when Euclid invented math  2200 years ago. So let’s try and figure out what this guy is saying. He lost all of his money so card counting doesn’t work. Hmmmm….let’s think about this for a second. Maybe, instead of jumping the gun hear and ruling out all the rules of math and logic for the last 4 decades,  there’s another option we can consider: This guys is a ***insert expletive***tard.  Let’s look at the clues:

    1. He went bankrupt from gambling, thinks it doesn’t work….AND IS STILL DOING IT!. Go Winner!
    2. Borona let’s him play there. For those of you who do not know Borona is one of the more savvy joints out there for a couple of reasons. They actually take time to assess people’s play before kicking them out…And they don’t view card counting as a crime and actually treat you with respect  as they ask you not to take any more of their hard earned money. If you’re there you can actually check out their card counters hall of fame. Anyways, back to the topic. I was kicked out of Borona 3 hours and 13 grand later but for some reason they have decided that this guy is not a threat?! Hmmm…
    3. Let’s be honest here. He seems like a retard (”Uh..you will get a 20 or 21 at a 16 count but so will the dealer”). For those of you who do not understand this idea anyone that has heard me teach on blackjack gets this concept in the first 15 minutes. High count = high cards = more blackjacks for everybody BUT when a player gets a bj they get 150% and when a dealer get’s it they only get 100%. So..DO NOT BUY THIS BOOK or be retarded like this guy. I want to show this video at our next bootcamp and tear this guy a new one just to make sure that not one buys into this.

    ps. For all of you who do understand math and logic please do not email me telling me that Euclid did not really invent math. it was a figure of speech.

    PPs. BUT he is credited with most of what we consider modern geometry.