If you can begin to understand “Expected Value” and how it effects the entire casino industry, then you are well on your way to understand how you can take the advantage away from casinos and have a long lasting card counting career.
What is Expected Value
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Hi Ben/Colin,
I know you and companies sell software that calculates the EV, but how do I calculate it manually? Do I just say I want to make R100 / hour (I’m South African) or is there a set method?
Many Thanks
EV is calculated off of simulations that run Billions of hands of blackjack using the specified bet spread. The more you use the software, the easier it is to ballpark EV in your head, but that is really just based from experience using the simulator. So to answer your question directly, EV is most accurately calculated using computer simulations. There really is no effective way to calculate EV manually.
Hah… I get it… With the coin example… If you toss it 10 times theoretically it should land 50% tails 50% heads, but it won’t…. But if we toss it long enough then we will have that relation (50:50)….
Just to add to Shomy’s comment: using knowledge from Calculus 1, EV seems to follow the properties of limits. As the number of coin tosses approaches infinity, you get the 50:50 split for heads and tails. Taking this concept to blackjack, it would mean that you simply have to play more to guess watch your EV is….
According to the admin, EV can only be measured exactly on a simulator, because it will have all of the parameters defined. Since blackjack is in the real world, all the variables involved are not fixed, let alone known. Still, I find it difficult for one to estimate EV if there aren’t any parameters to work with…
Refreshing Videos! I’m an oooollldd Guy and have dabbled at playing Blackjack for years with only modest ‘success’. I’ve read many books on the subject, tried many ‘systems’ and ‘count Patterns’, both at home with pencil/paper/calcs AND atvarous small & big Casinos (mostly here in Las Vegas).
YET several of your Videos a startled me with practical advice whic I have somehow ‘overlooked’! Most of all, your video on the difference between ‘Gambling’ versus ‘Investing’ attitudes has freed me of the whispering ‘Guilt’ felt all these years that I’ve been ‘dabbling’ (cautiously; i.e. never played past a loss of more than $100 or a Win of more than $200).
Now I have ‘invented’ some Real Card/Flash Card Decks which are designed to refresh my Basics of Strategy more naturally.
SO what? Well thanks for your website (amongst the many).
P.S. I forgot to say I’m interested in BJ ‘Team’ play but fear my modest experience & more modest Soc Sec Income Limitations may prevent such a pastime. Any suggestions?
Welcome to the site, Big Bart!
Start with step 1… mastering basic strategy. Then counting, then playing BS while counting, then deviations and betting. When you’ve established yourself as a successful counter, then think about starting or getting involved with a team. But first things first.
-Colin
Hello Awesome Blackjack people!
I am still very much at the beginning here. (Still working on Basic Strategy). But, something came to mind about using variance to your advantage. Maybe this is obvious (or wrong) but I just wanted to check. It seems that if you happen (through short term variance) to be “up” move than your EV for the given amount of time you want to play, you should stop. For example, if I was a rock star like Colin or Ben and my EV was $500 an hour and I wanted to play 3 hours…It would seem that if I ever happen to be up OVER $1500 it would be a good time to stop since my EV for that same amount of time is $1500. Again, just beginning here and this might be talked about more in the forums but I am still bring to get my basic strategy perfected. Also, I saw Colin had suggested in number 8 to practice counting before memorizing the deviations. Is that always recommended? Thanks again!
Josh,
We do have a video on this, but it’s probably in the member’s section.
So first off, there are no bad questions, but yeah, this is bad logic. (; You have to treat your entire career like one never-ending session. If you’re above EV after an hour, the next shoe is still worth the same amount of EV as it would be worth if you were down $1500. Each hand and each shoe has a value, and you need to start thinking that way. How much you win or lose in an hour needs to stay divorced from the task of “Generating EV”. So If you’re up $100,000 when you’ve only generated $1500 of EV, that’s not a good reason to stop. It might be a good time to stop for other reasons (you’re tired, losing of focus, you want to avoid heat from the casino by winning too much at one time). But “tricking the cards” by stopping when you’re ahead is not a good reason to stop.
Hope that helps.
Oh yeah, and follow my advice about the order of training… basic strategy, basic while counting, then start adding deviations and betting.
Colin -
Thanks so much. I have not taken probability since 8th Grade! I totally forgot that. This is why you are the Money Maker! By the way, have I told you that you are my new favorite person in the world? If you are ever in Chicago I would be honored to buy you a beer. Gotta get back to Basic Strategy Practice! Running about 97% but I still have to stop and think about some of the soft totals and some of the splits. Damn You A,6 and 6,6!!!